India Economics Update How credible is the asset sales target? The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target that has been set in the budget for FY19/20 appear to be dependent on the smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. That seems unlikely... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the second quarter growth figures show? Early indicators suggest that GDP growth slowed sharply across Emerging Asia in the second quarter. Although most countries should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year, growth is likely to... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for fiscal policy? With budget deficits still large in Brazil and Argentina, fiscal policy there will continue to be tightened over the coming years. But small budget deficits in Mexico, Chile and Peru mean that... 15th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers, but the continued decline in the headline rate in June will help the MPC to justify another rate cut at... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Consumption growth ‘deemed’ to be weak The consensus is slowly edging closer to our forecast that GDP growth in 2019 will be just 1.5%. And high levels of household debt and a lack of fiscal stimulus mean that growth will probably remain... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Political risks and three big economic trends While it is recognised that political developments, such as a no deal Brexit and a Labour government, have the capacity to send the economy in different directions, it’s not as well known that three... 11th July 2019 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus is back, property curbs still in place Last month’s directive to boost infrastructure spending appears to have had an immediate result, with data this week showing a surge in issuance of infrastructure financing bonds. But easing remains a... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update The fiscal maths don’t add up The finance ministry attempted to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal prudence by lowering the FY19/20 deficit target in today’s union budget announcement. However, it is also aiming to boost... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan’s tax structure still far from ideal Prime Minister Abe has pledged that following the increase in the sales tax rate to 10% in October, the tax won’t be raised for another ten years. We agree that there is no pressing need to boost... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes for additional fiscal stimulus dashed The economy is now getting support from all sides, with the RBA cutting interest rates, Parliament passing the tax cuts promised in the Budget and APRA loosening constraints on mortgage lending this... 5th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q1 2019) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tax exemptions, RBI minutes Ahead of the full budget for FY19/20 on 5 th July, the early leaks have focused on potential changes to income taxes. By themselves, these won’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But they... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
