Commodities Update China fiscal stimulus not enough to boost prices China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in August. But both remain consistent with slower year-on-year growth in the remainder of 2019, which does not bode well for energy and industrial metals... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily If Trump pivots to fiscal policy, bond yields could rebound We think that Germany’s Ifo survey deteriorated further in August (Monday) Euro-zone inflation probably remained subdued in August (Friday) Divergence between US manufacturing sector and real... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Germany’s fiscal policy unlikely to alter outlook for bonds The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the... 19th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Javid to loosen fiscal policy, economy has poor start to Q3 It came as no surprise that Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister this week. And in his first speech in Parliament on Thursday there was no sign of him rowing back on his campaign pledges... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal rules are made to be broken Any spending spree by the new administration will probably be accompanied by a rise in borrowing, which could breach the current fiscal rule, especially if there is a no deal Brexit. However, fiscal... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Benefits from lower company tax rate would be small Australia’s corporate tax rate remains one of the highest in the world. However, the boost to GDP growth from lowering it towards the levels seen elsewhere would probably be quite small. 24th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Budget deal removes uncertainty, but adds to debt risk The budget deal agreed by the Trump administration and Congress removes the risk of a damaging debt ceiling crisis in September and prevents a contraction in discretionary spending from October... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update New Prime Minister: Brace for turbulence Despite his hard-line stance on the campaign trail, there is no way of knowing how Boris Johnson will handle Brexit once he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow. But it’s going to be turbulent and the... 23rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Equities have further to fall Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in... 23rd July 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update State infrastructure spending won’t come to the rescue The federal government has urged state governments to step up infrastructure spending. But given the deterioration in their finances, we suspect that states are more likely to reduce capital spending. 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly OBR’s no deal warning, signs of life on the high street The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) public finance forecasts in a no deal scenario published in its Fiscal Risks Report this week really do look pretty dreadful. We suspect they overdo the... 19th July 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly A little sinning would do no harm Borrowing in foreign currency has been at the root of virtually every major EM sovereign debt crisis, which is why it gets called the “original sin” of emerging economies. It is unsurprising... 19th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis brewing Reaching a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling by early September should be a relatively straightforward exercise, but the increasingly confrontational relationship between President Donald... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
