India Economics Weekly The fallout from the fiscal bonanza The large-scale fiscal stimulus announced last Friday has continued to reverberate in markets this week. We are revising up our end-2019 equity market forecasts to reflect the recent surge, though we... 27th September 2019 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Excess infrastructure, bond quota confusion Beijing’s new airport is a timely microcosm of a nationwide trend in which local governments have built unusually extensive infrastructure, much of which is under-utilised. As a result, investment... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Fiscal policy being loosened, Indonesia an exception The Indonesian government’s budget for 2020 came a step closer to being passed this week after the parliament’s budgetary committee approved President Joko Widodo’s spending plans for the coming year... 24th September 2019 · 15 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Four key points as Sitharaman loosens the purse strings Fiscal loosening measures announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman today are likely to provide a small boost to economic growth over the coming quarters, but significantly increase the chances... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wishful thinking about German fiscal policy While far from certain, there is a growing chance that the German government announces a fiscal stimulus in the coming weeks or months. However, even if it does, we think any boost to demand would be... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Brazil’s fiscal reform plans The Brazilian government’s tax and budget reform plans would, if implemented, significantly improve the country’s longer-term fiscal health and productivity growth. But the proposals will face more... 18th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing sentiment worst since 2011 Business surveys suggest that conditions in manufacturing worsened again in August. The Cabinet Office’s survey-based index of manufacturing conditions fell to its lowest level since 2011, when the... 17th September 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Student loans the last nail in the coffin of the fiscal rule The implementation of a change to how student loans are classified in the public finances, on top of a jump in government spending so far this year and the 2019 Spending Round, means the Government’s... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor turns on the spending taps While the bulk of the extra spending unveiled today in the 2019 Spending Round had already been announced, its overall stance was a bit looser than had been anticipated. This could raise GDP growth by... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
