Public finances in better shape than in most countries The Conservatives are sticking to their commitment to balance the budget if elected, but over the next 18 months the party’s deficit proposals look very similar to the Liberal’s. While the high... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to get no cover from fiscal policy Calls for any fiscal stimulus to support the Swedish economy are likely to fall on deaf ears, so the burden will continue to be entirely on the Riksbank. A combination of a dovish shift by the Bank... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Stimulus to drive rebound in growth India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain... 8th October 2019 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do The RBA’s interest rate cuts are running into diminishing returns as banks are protecting their net interest margins and loan demand remains muted. Meanwhile, the sluggish increase in retail sales in... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Banking sector warnings, fiscal deficit target doubts India’s authorities have recently received plaudits for their efforts to clean up the banking sector. But news this week of a fraud scandal at the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank (PMC Bank) is... 4th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Liberals and Tories eye wider budget deficits The Liberals would loosen fiscal policy by more than the Conservatives if they won October’s election, but neither parties’ plans would seriously transform the economic outlook. 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French fiscal policy to be tighter in 2020 The giveaways to households and firms announced by French finance minister Bruno Le Maire yesterday do not alter the fact that there will be a tightening in France’s fiscal stance in 2020. Indeed, the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
