Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Default fears crystallising The spotlight has shifted back onto weak sovereign debt positions in Frontier Markets this month after the election of a left-wing president in Argentina and growing political instability in Lebanon... 31st October 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Ecuador’s fiscal challenges Ecuador’s government has successfully stabilised the debt-to-GDP ratio, and it remains committed to IMF plans to cut the public debt ratio to just 30% of GDP. But the president’s climbdown in the face... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lack of fiscal stimulus will force the RBA’s hand The new Secretary to the Treasury endorsed the government’s hands-off approach to fiscal policy this week. We suspect the Australian government could increase spending significantly to support the... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Rewriting the fiscal rules One way or another, the UK is destined for looser fiscal policy. How much and in what form is unclear, but the one thing that is clear is that it will require a new set of fiscal rules. There are many... 24th October 2019 · 14 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal stimulus urgently needed but unlikely We estimate that a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP would still be consistent with maintaining Australia’s AAA-rating. Unfortunately, fiscal policy probably won’t come to the rescue, leaving... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: After pension reform, what next? Brazil’s pension reform bill should help to stabilise the public finances and lift a dark cloud over the outlook. The government has a long to-do list of further fiscal reforms, although the political... 22nd October 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s better-than-expected public finances figures do not change this year’s overarching themes of higher spending and borrowing. Nonetheless, there is a high chance that the Chancellor will... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
