India Chart Pack Services holding up better than industry Q3 GDP data due next week are likely to show a further slowdown in India’s economy, with the industrial sector the main source of weakness. However, some comfort can be taken from the fact that the... 22nd November 2019 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update Only small fiscal stimulus for the euro-zone next year Calls for much looser fiscal policy in the euro-zone are falling on deaf ears. While the Netherlands and Germany have set out fiscal stimuli for 2020, each has past form for running tighter policy... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) The worst October for the public finances for five years won’t prevent whoever wins the election embarking on a fiscal splurge. Borrowing appears to have been higher than expected due to Brexit... 21st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Signing of CUSMA will do little for growth There was some good news for Canada’s exporters this week, as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi indicated that the Democrats will soon give their support to the revised NAFTA, aka CUSMA. While the... 15th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon’s woes, Qatar blockade, Kuwaiti infighting The situation in Lebanon is going from bad to worse and the chances of a combined debt, currency and banking crisis are rising. President Aoun seems to be seeking a bailout package but this would only... 14th November 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Moody’s sets a very high bar Moody’s decision to cut its outlook on India’s sovereign rating is based in part on the government’s struggle to rein in the fiscal deficit. This is justifiable if a little behind the curve. But the... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government heeds Kuroda’s call for fiscal stimulus The Bank of Japan has urged the government to address the mounting downside risks to economic activity with additional spending and the government has confirmed it will do so. Meanwhile, the available... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Looser fiscal policy unlikely to mean a bloodbath for Gilts Despite a slight dovish shift, the Bank of England’s decision to leave rates on hold today led to only a small market reaction. Speeches from both Conservative Chancellor Sajid Javid and his Labour... 7th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO, Saudi fiscal policy, Lebanese banks A few more details of the Aramco IPO have trickled out in the last few days and we now know that 2% of the firm will be listed on the Tadawul on 11th December. The funds from the IPO wouldn’t be quite... 7th November 2019 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update New fiscal rules clear the way for pre-election splurge With the Conservatives and the Labour Party now competing on fiscal profligacy rather than fiscal prudence, it is unsurprising that the Chancellor Sajid Javid announced today a full rewrite of the... 7th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A fiscal health check We expect most major EMs to loosen fiscal policy further next year. Weak public finances mean that a few major EMs, notably Brazil and South Africa, will need to tighten policy. But aside from... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen above the RBI’s 4.0% target for the first time in 15 months in October due to another jump in food inflation. This won’t dissuade the central... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five points on Brazil’s fiscal reform package The fiscal package presented to Brazil’s congress yesterday shows that the government is not resting on its laurels after its successful pension reform. However, the good news on fiscal reform already... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus OBR to drive final nail into the fiscal rules coffin Although the Office for Budget Responsibility won’t expose the full deterioration in the public finances when it updates its forecasts on Thursday, it’s clear that it is only a matter of time before... 6th November 2019 · 10 mins read
