Africa Chart Pack Policymakers step up African central banks had a busy month in January. Policymakers in South Africa and Kenya surprised the markets (and us) by cutting their key rates by 25bp. We expect that both countries’ central... 31st January 2020 · 13 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal policy to do heavy lifting, trade deal scepticism In tomorrow’s budget, the finance ministry will be trying to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal rectitude and supporting an economy in the doldrums. Some ambitious revenue projections... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Monetary policy is losing its power over households The downward trend in interest rates that began in the 1980s contributed to large falls in household saving rates in most advanced economies. But with larger proportions of people now nearing... 30th January 2020 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Path towards tighter BoE policy, and higher Gilt yields, is clearer The Bank of England left rates unchanged today, and we think that it will continue to keep policy on hold in 2020, before hiking in 2021. As such, we expect the 10-year UK government bond (Gilt) yield... 30th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin’s political shake-up: the economic consequences This Focus looks at the economic implications of the recent political shake-up in Russia. We begin with an overview of the political developments, then explain what they mean for economic policymaking... 29th January 2020 · 16 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
India Economics Weekly FDI inflows likely to rise further The rise in FDI inflows to India in 2019 reported by UNCTAD this week is a welcome development and we expect inflows to increase further over the coming years. A key risk is the Modi government’s... 24th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends (Jan.) & Public Finances (Dec.) The rebound in the main balances of the CBI Industrial Trends Survey in January offers further evidence that sentiment has taken an upward turn after the general election. This should help to convince... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
India Economics Focus What to expect from the union budget A wave of anti-government protests and a weak economy have increased the likelihood of the finance ministry delivering additional fiscal stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget on Saturday 1st February... 22nd January 2020 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus increasingly likely A ramping up of anti-government protests and advanced estimates showing GDP growth dropped to its weakest rate since the global financial crisis in FY19/20 increases the pressure on the finance... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
