India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand The policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has so far been led by the region’s central banks, but governments are also now stepping up to the plate. Earlier this week, Singapore unveiled a budget... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Flash PMIs (Feb.) & Public Finances (Jan.) The continued strength of the PMIs in February proves that the surge in January wasn’t a flash in the pan and gives us confidence in our view that economic growth will pick up in the first quarter. 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs? While we agree with investors’ general view that monetary conditions will be accommodative in DMs this year, there’s a group of countries – including the US – where the markets look too dovish. At the... 20th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: 2020 budget should limit hit from virus With the economic cost of the coronavirus mounting, Singapore’s government opted to loosen policy significantly in its 2020 budget today. Growth is still likely to slow sharply, but the strong fiscal... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Change of Chancellor increases upsides for economy We had already been expecting fiscal policy to provide a decent boost to economic growth over the next couple of years, but the changing of the Chancellor this week means that boost could turn out to... 14th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly A decent fiscal boost is still on the way This week brought the clearest sign yet that the economy has turned a corner. And with the prospect of a fiscal loosening in the Budget on 11th March likely to provide a further lift to GDP growth, we... 7th February 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone fiscal policy less effective than it once was Hopes for a substantial boost to economic growth in the euro-zone from fiscal policy in the next year or two are likely to be disappointed. It seems likely that any fiscal stimulus will be very small... 6th February 2020 · 15 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asset sales target lacks credibility The government’s hopes of hitting the record asset sales target in the budget for FY20/21 hinge on the smooth sale of large stakes in one of India’s worst-performing banks and a politically-important... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the fiscal stimulus deliver much bang for its buck? We think that the coming fiscal stimulus will raise annual GDP growth by about 0.6ppts this year and 0.25ppts in 2021. This is part of the reason why we expect GDP growth to beat the consensus... 3rd February 2020 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Greek pensions: a step in the wrong direction A decade after the start of its first bailout programme, the Greek government has still not reined in the cost of its pension system. And the government’s recent decision to raise pensions suggests... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Finance ministry loosens the purse strings The finance ministry set aside notions of near term fiscal consolidation by announcing additional stimulus in the FY20/21 union budget. That should help to support economic growth over the coming... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
