Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s oil policy shift and what it means for the Gulf The sharp fall in oil prices today will push current account and budget positions into deficit across the Gulf, but these can be financed from large savings for some time. Dollar pegs should stay... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon: how might a debt restructuring play out? Lebanon’s government is set to decide tomorrow on whether to repay a $1.2bn Eurobond maturing on Monday. Whatever the decision, a debt restructuring inevitably lies in store and the government will... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policy response will only cushion the blow The market slump will galvanise policymakers into action. The situation is evolving quickly but we now think there will be a fiscal stimulus of at least 1% of GDP in the euro-zone this year, and... 6th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Coronavirus complicates new policymakers’ task The drop back in equity prices this week heaps more pressure on the new head honchos at the Treasury and the Bank of England to deliver some measures to help mitigate the economic effects of the... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small With the coronavirus outbreak spreading across Europe and its disruption to economic activity likely to mount, we think that the Polish central bank will ease policy this year. But the tone of the MPC... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Budget Preview: Safety first The new Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s first priority in the Budget on Wednesday 11th March will be to deliver a package of measures to help those areas of the economy likely to be hit hardest by the... 4th March 2020 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Policymakers in DMs to respond to coronavirus risks It is now likely that the central banks of major developed markets (DMs) will follow Australia in loosening monetary policy to help their economies weather the impact of the coronavirus. But there is... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Coronavirus will force Bank of Japan to cut rates Two developments over the past couple of days have caused us to change our thinking on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan. We now assume that the coronavirus will spread widely across most of... 3rd March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia and Korea line up fiscal responses The spread of the new coronavirus beyond China is drawing increasingly forceful policy responses, with fiscal policy taking the lead. Malaysia and Korea both announced fiscal packages in the past 24... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong stimulus package a good painkiller The 2020-2021 budget that the Hong Kong government announced earlier today is large in scale and should help offset the damage that the coronavirus outbreak is having on companies and consumers. But... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Can the government spend as much as it wants? While we are not convinced that capacity in the construction sector will be an immediate restraint on a big public investment splurge, the inner workings of the government could lessen the amount of... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
