Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal support needed, but Fed still has more to do The Fed’s revival of financial crisis-era programs and a huge ramp-up in the pace of its open-ended Treasury purchases in recent days could help to stem some of the bleeding in financial markets. But... 19th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy, MENA virus responses ramp up The news that Saudi Arabia will deepen fiscal austerity suggests that, despite oil prices falling to their lowest levels since the early 2000s, the authorities have no immediate plans to reverse... 19th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Covid-19: Will EM policymakers respond aggressively? Governments in the developed world are unveiling major fiscal and monetary policy responses to try to stave off a financial crisis, and some EMs (notably parts of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia)... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB highlights limited space for policy response The Brazilian central bank’s (BCB’s) statement accompanying last night’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 50bp was surprisingly cautious and suggested that further easing isn’t on the cards. With the... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal costs of virus could easily top 10-15% of GDP The combination of the government responses to the coronavirus and the slump in economic activity will cause euro-zone budget balances to deteriorate by at least 10-15% of GDP this year. While this... 18th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response will be stepped up across the region The coronavirus outbreak has prompted interest rate cuts and fiscal support packages in several countries across Emerging Europe and we think that more easing lies in store. That said, Turkey’s easing... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Further fiscal stimulus will be needed The crisis package outlined today by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau will help to cushion the blow from the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But given the... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will fiscal policy ride to the rescue? With central banks already having used up most of their ammunition, we are now reliant on governments to prevent the global recession from turning into something even worse. We are optimistic that the... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Slump in output to trigger large policy response The draconian coronavirus containment measures adopted by Australia’s government mean that we now expect GDP to fall by 2% this year. The Australian government is likely to respond with a larger... 18th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t package cuts chances of financial crisis While the large package of measures aimed to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus unveiled by the government today probably won’t prevent a precipitous decline in GDP in Q2, it should help... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Likely slump in GDP to prompt bigger policy response We are now assuming a huge hit to GDP for the next eight weeks or so that results in growth of -10% annualised in the second quarter. But with policymakers acting quickly and working more closely... 17th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What more can policymakers do? There is much more that central banks could do to ease any strains that appear in financial markets. But with interest rates now more or less back to their effective lower bound in the US, euro-zone... 16th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New forecasts, limited policy responses It now seems likely that the effects of the coronavirus will take a heavier toll on Latin American economies than we previously thought, so we’ve revised down our 2020 growth forecasts across the... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
