UK Economics Update The fiscal cost of the coronavirus crisis The coronavirus crisis means that the government’s budget deficit will soon explode to above the 10% of GDP peak seen in the financial crisis and debt could spiral from about 80% of GDP now to over... 25th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Massive policy support not likely to derail Treasuries for long We wouldn’t be surprised if the massive policy support that has been announced in the US in recent days had some adverse effect on Treasuries in the second half of 2020. After all, similar support... 25th March 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update Growth to slump to a four-decade low in 2020 The measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus announced by PM Modi last night will be hard to fully implement but will still have severe economic repercussions. We now expect the economy to... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Congress steps up to the plate The $2trn stimulus package agreed by Congress will include a permanent fiscal expansion worth up to 5% of GDP and, in conjunction with the new lending facilities announced by the Fed, could channel up... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Containment measures put onus on finance ministry The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India is now rising sharply and, in response, most states have implemented full or partial lockdowns. With many households likely to have very low savings... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Policymakers still struggling to turn the tide in markets While the US Congress remains deadlocked over the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed has once more stepped into the breach with another massive monetary policy support package. Although... 23rd March 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany opens the fiscal taps Germany’s supplementary budget for nearly 5% of GDP sets an example that other euro-zone countries are likely to follow. However, we suspect that the costs will end up being much higher even than this... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Fiscal support ramped up as shutdown looms Australia is moving closer to shutting down a large share of its services sector and we now expect GDP to fall by 4% this year. The government is responding with a second, larger fiscal stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Gov’t pays about £110bn to stop unemployment rising 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Output set to collapse, policy support likely to build The downside risks to the global economy have now become reality and the effects of the coronavirus outbreak will cause output to fall sharply in Q2 and GDP across the region will contract this year... 20th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Further fiscal support needed Finance Minister Bill Morneau this week unveiled a fiscal package equivalent to 3.6% of GDP to help offset the disruption caused the coronavirus outbreak. This may be enough to prevent the forthcoming... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Republican stimulus bill only a first step The Republican senators’ fiscal proposals would provide an immediate stimulus worth more than 2% of GDP and help to offset some of the damage to the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. That said... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) After coming in at about 2% of GDP in 2019/20, the budget deficit will soon explode to close to the size seen in the great financial crisis. The government’s measures to combat the economic fallout of... 20th March 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials still in denial over growth, scale of stimulus China’s government will only lower its 2020 GDP target marginally, to around 5% according to media reports. Given the sharp contraction in output this quarter, this would require implausibly strong... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Policymakers hold back, rupee drops to record low Both Prime Minister Modi and RBI Governor Das took cautious steps in their responses to the coronavirus outbreak this week, but left the door open for more aggressive measures. With domestic virus... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
