Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive The austerity measures announced by the Saudi government today reinforce our view that it will rely on fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation to make the adjustment to cheap oil. The measures... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Continued easing, but policy support remains essential Conditions in money markets have continued to ease gradually as central banks have expanded their backstop measures. In our view, extensive support from policymakers will remain a key factor... 6th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy responses: the good, the bad and the ugly A worrying divergence is emerging in the policy response across the region. Policymakers in Central Europe imposed lockdown measures early which have succeeded in containing the outbreak. And the... 5th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Can governments shoulder a higher debt burden? The coronavirus will leave in its wake a sharp rise in public sector debt. Low interest rates suggest that many governments will be able to live with this, rather than having to resort to austerity... 5th May 2020 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials turn to infrastructure amid slow recovery The early data for April suggest that the post-COVID-19 recovery remains slow and uneven. Policymakers are stepping up fiscal stimulus in response, which looks set to drive a sharp pick-up in... 30th April 2020 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fiscal rescue to push debt burden close to WWII levels With Congress ramping up its fiscal stimulus rescue package, federal debt will rise above 100% of GDP this year, not far off the record high of 108% of GDP in the aftermath of WWII. That is not a... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi fiscal tightening, Algeria woes, remittance slump Comments from Saudi’s finance minister support our view that fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation will be relied on to make the adjustment to low oil prices, which will make the economic... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Mar.) & DMO Gilt Issuance Despite the slight deterioration in March, the budget deficit was still only £48.7bn (2.1% of GDP) in 2019/20, but it will soon surge next year. The government measures to combat the economic fallout... 23rd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on South Africa’s fiscal package The 10% of GDP emergency fiscal response announced by South Africa’s president last night will help to alleviate some of the strains in the economy caused by the lockdown. But with this coming one... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Is the Fed monetising the deficit? The scale of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities in the first few weeks of the pandemic, in addition to the sheer size of the broader expansion in its balance sheet, arguably suggests that the... 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
Policymakers provide further support Policymakers further increased the monetary and fiscal support this week but, with the earliest data suggesting that the coronavirus outbreak has hit the economy faster and deeper than we initially... 17th April 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly April is the cruelest month Activity data for March released this week confirm a precipitous drop in economic output. And with the nationwide lockdown now being extended, far worse is likely to follow in April. 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
