US Economics Update Next wave of fiscal measures to be less impressive Congress will probably agree to another round of fiscal support over the coming weeks, but we doubt that will make a huge difference to the economy, given that it appears set to be an order of... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Will government debt be sustainable after the crisis? Public debt ratios are set to rise sharply in all euro-zone countries this year but in most cases they should then start to fall again. The exceptions are Greece and, more importantly, Italy where we... 20th May 2020 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the Franco-German fiscal proposal The €500bn EU joint fiscal package suggested by France and Germany would be a significant move towards fiscal union. However, the benefit to the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus crisis... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: no devaluation, but a big dose of austerity Oman is one of the most vulnerable economies in the Gulf to a period of ultra-low oil prices but we think that financial support from its neighbours will avert the need to abandon the dollar peg. Even... 18th May 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Stimulus disappoints amid lockdown extension The final details of the stimulus package reinforce our initial take that, while helpful in limiting downside risks to the economy, it will do little to boost demand in the near term. With the... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Debt lessons from the east The Treasury is reportedly already thinking up ways to reduce public debt in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis in order to maintain investors’ confidence. But other countries with much higher... 15th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway rips up the fiscal rule book Having endured a bruising few months, the risks to the Norwegian krone now appear to be on the upside, not least given that the government plans to spend a greater proportion of the pension fund this... 15th May 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the stimulus measures After weeks of inaction, the government has made a splash with its new support package by spreading the details across three separate announcements (and counting) this week. But as more details emerge... 15th May 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the NPC The 2020 growth target (or lack of one!) will be announced next Friday at the National People’s Congress (NPC) and will signal how confident the leadership is in a strong rebound and the degree to... 15th May 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal costs of crisis may be greater than OBR predicts With the Office for Budget Responsibility’s government borrowing forecasts only including the cost of just one of the extra four months of the Job Retention Scheme and no medium-term scarring effects... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Jobs Budget should limit rise in unemployment rate The additional $16bn of spending in today’s Budget along with a relatively fast relaxation of the Covid-19 restrictions should reduce the number of job losses in New Zealand. Add in a sharp reduction... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Will stimulus push up government financing costs? The new fiscal stimulus will substantially push up India’s already-high public debt ratio. Policymakers may have to resort to unusual steps to keep borrowing costs in check, including further... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update New fiscal package is less spectacular than it seems Prime Minister Modi’s 10% of GDP support package sounds impressive but the details just announced make clear that it has been bulked out for effect. Extra demand-boosting measures are worth less than... 13th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Overall policy response close in size to the US The federal government’s spending measures are dwarfed by those in the US, and the Bank of Canada’s plans look underwhelming compared to those of the Federal Reserve. But the overall fiscal packages... 13th May 2020 · 6 mins read
