Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more... 17th December 2024 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Fall Economic Statement a secondary event The Fall Economic Statement (FES) showed a much larger budget deficit for the previous fiscal year than previously estimated, but that was largely due to one-off charges related to indigenous... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target? The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as... 13th December 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Update Three ways the Spending Review could affect fiscal policy With pressures on public spending continuing to grow, this has raised the chances that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, raises spending further in her 2025 Spending Review. If she raises spending and... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
