UK Economics Update New interest rate forecast – first cut sooner, end destination is 3% In a change to our previous forecast, we now think that the first interest rate cut from the Bank of England will happen in June this year rather than in November. We still think that interest rates... 3rd January 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s economic struggles look set to persist In the past few years, Egypt’s economy has been hit by the successive impacts of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and, more recently, currency devaluations. With further currency falls on the cards... 3rd January 2024 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: December CPI and the Fed’s 2024 path back to its 2% inflation target 1704985200 Will inflation continue its retreat into 2024? When will the Fed start easing policy, and by how much will it cut rates over the coming year?
Event Drop-In: 2024 EM Outlook – Big growth divergence in a big election year 1704987000 The past 12 months have seen marked divergence in growth across emerging markets economies, as well as the start of easing cycles among some of their central banks.
Event EM Drop-In: Is Turkey’s policy shift the real deal? 1704812400 The Erdogan government’s turn back to macroeconomic orthodoxy is showing early positive signs: inflation pressures have eased; the current account deficit has narrowed; and foreign investment has p
Europe Economics Update Increase in bank lending won’t stop ECB from cutting Data released this morning showed that bank lending in the euro-zone picked up towards the end of last year. But we doubt that this is the start of a sustained turnaround. We expect the impact of... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: economic weakness to prompt rate cuts in 2024 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in Q4 but this strength is unlikely to last if, as we expect, exports weaken and commercial banks pull back on lending in response to a sharp rise in non-performing... 29th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Further declines in GDP in the coming quarters mean that the economy is unlikely to grow at all... 28th December 2023 · 0 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 2023) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue into 2024, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property... 28th December 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed hawks can’t compete with plunging inflation This week saw a renewed attempt from some Fed officials to push back against market expectations for interest rate cuts but, with core PCE inflation running at an annualised pace of below 2% over the... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina deregulates, Brazil’s tax reform, rate cuts The past week saw a flurry of pro-growth reforms that could boost long-term growth prospects in parts of the region. In Argentina, President Milei took a first big step towards reducing the role of... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Three key calls for 2024 Our three key calls for 2024 are that growth will struggle, inflation will fall and that central banks will start to cut interest rates sooner than most expect. 22nd December 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EU’s new fiscal rules, CNB joins the rate cutting club EU finance ministers agreed on a new set of fiscal rules this week, but this doesn’t change our view that concerns about public debt dynamics will grow in parts of Central and Eastern Europe over the... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy still easing but not enough to hit growth target Although the Loan Prime Rates were left unchanged on Wednesday, today’s coordinated reductions in commercial bank deposit rates suggest the PBOC is still on an easing path. Meanwhile, a lower headline... 22nd December 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will wait until March before hiking rates Bank of Japan Governor Ueda indicated this week that the Bank won’t make any policy changes at its upcoming meeting in January as it wants to see the results of next year’s spring wage negotiations... 22nd December 2023 · 8 mins read
