Asia Economics Weekly BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening On the Bank of Japan's favoured measure, spare capacity has remained tight across the economy despite the recent weakness of GDP - which this week's data confirmed extended into Q1. That's another... 17th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and... 15th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: April CPI and the Bank of England’s path to rate cuts 1716366600 We think the Bank of England will decide to start cutting rates at its next meeting, but there’s a series of crucial data releases between now and that policy decision on 20th
Event Europe Drop-In: The start of the ECB rate cut cycle? 1717682400 We think the ECB’s June meeting will mark the start of a more aggressive rate cutting cycle than markets are currently pricing.
Global Economics Update Europe is leading the cutting cycle, but will it last? Contrary to the earlier assumption that the US Federal Reserve would lead the monetary policy loosening cycle among advanced economies, it is Switzerland and Sweden that have cut first. This has... 14th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Copom minutes (May 2024) The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting suggest that the balance on Copom is, overall, more cautious than had been widely assumed immediately after the meeting. That may provide some... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
