Event Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints 1st February 2024, 3:00PM GMT We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start. A team of...
Event ANZ Drop-In: Australia Q4 CPI and the case for an early RBA cut 1706670000 There’s a popular view that the RBA won’t start cutting interest rates until later in the second half of this year.
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Jan.) Despite a cut being widely expected, the MLF was again kept unchanged today – for a fifth straight month. The main factor holding the PBOC back was probably lingering concerns about the renminbi. This... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s spiralling violence, diverging inflation story The dramatic escalation of violence in Ecuador this week is primarily a social and security problem, but there will be economic implications too. Activity is likely to be disrupted and the government... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today and, although a monetary easing cycle seems to be drawing nearer, we think that interest rates are unlikely to be cut... 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stronger data ahead as PBOC continues to ease The Q4 GDP data due on Wednesday are likely to confirm what we’ve been saying for some time – that the economy was regaining momentum at the end of 2023 thanks to policy support. That recovery is... 12th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will continue to moderate rapidly Inflation fell sharply in November and while the quarterly CPI due later this month will show that it was still above 4% in Q4, monthly prints should soon start with a 3. With the unemployment rate... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Window for policy normalisation not closing just yet While the economic data released this week suggest that the case for tighter policy is diminishing, inflation is set to rebound and wage growth will strengthen again before long. Accordingly, we still... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s IMF deal, Saudi’s fiscal position and bond issuance An expansion of Egypt’s IMF deal appears to be edging closer following meetings between its government and the Fund and US Treasury this week. A shift back towards economic orthodoxy, including the... 11th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (December 2023) The renewed fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.6% y/y, paves the way for another 50bp cut to the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at the central bank’s next meeting at the end of the... 11th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s economy stuck in malaise Economic growth in Jordan has been sluggish for the best part of a decade and the outlook doesn't look much brighter. While the renewed IMF programme will help to contain external strains, the Israel... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Dovish signals from the BoK supports case for early rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but struck a more dovish tone than after previous meetings. With inflation on the way down and growth likely to struggle over the coming... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP has limited scope for rate cuts in 2024 Communications from the governor of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) today suggest to us that policymakers could cut interest rates again at the central bank’s March meeting. But we think core... 10th January 2024 · 3 mins read
