Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Is PM Modi on the backfoot?

As India’s mammoth general election enters its final week, a narrative that has unfolded in the international media is a waning of popular support for Prime Minister Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Singapore slowdown, Thailand’s weak recovery

GDP growth in Singapore slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, and the outlook for the rest of 2024 is very poor, with a weakening labour market, tighter fiscal policy and subdued global...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Upcoming Shunto will thwart further policy tightening

The recent sharp slowdown in underlying inflation isn't inconsistent with the Bank of Japan's view that most of the previous strength in inflation was driven by an import cost that is now fading...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Weaker consumption would lift risk of earlier rate cut

Whereas the Reserve Bank of Australia expects the household savings rate to rise over the course of this year, we think that households will lift real consumption alongside a likely rebound in real...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs offer some better news on services price pressures

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies has continued to gain momentum in Q2. And central banks may take comfort in the fact that services price pressures seem to be easing...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Update

Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates

We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have...

23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Focus

South Africa’s election: into the unknown?

South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in...

23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (May)

Turkey’s central bank left its main policy rate unchanged at 50.00% again today and the statement continued to emphasise the need to keep interest rates high for a prolonged period. While the...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Q1 wage data a concern for the ECB

We don’t think the pick-up in euro-zone negotiated wage growth in Q1 will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates in June. But the continued strength of pay pressures reduces the chance of the ECB...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2024)

Today’s May flash PMI survey will have provided the Bank of England with some comfort after yesterday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for April. Crucially, the further fall in the services...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Bank of Korea to cut interest rates in October

The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%) and appeared to indicate that interest rates would not be cut until it was confident that inflation would fall back to target. Given our...

23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Korea Policy Rate (May 2024)

The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave the policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, of more interest will be the tone of the central bank’s statement and Governor Rhee’s press...

23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Minutes (Apr 20 - May 1)

The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting are, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment...

22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While GDP growth in the Andean economies will be stronger this year than last, the opposite...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read