Asia Chart Pack

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024)

Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to...

30th May 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

New forecasts for Swedish inflation and the Riksbank

During the coming months, we expect falling goods and energy inflation to pull down the headline inflation rate in Sweden. This should encourage policymakers to cut rates from 3.75% currently to 3.00%...

30th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was never in doubt. Governor Kganyago said as little about the election as was possible, but the MPC will be...

30th May 2024 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

Change in policy stance looks imminent

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will almost certainly keep the repo rate on hold at 6.50% at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on Friday, 7th June. But we think that the committee will lay the...

30th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up

Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to...

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Caution favours the hold

The rapid easing in core inflation pressures this year means the Bank of Canada is set to cut interest rates either next week or in July. While it will be a very close call, the recent resilience of...

29th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico?

A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The...

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

DM Markets Chart Pack

Global Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this...

29th May 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024)

Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus...

28th May 2024 · 0 mins read

Capital Daily

Have JGB yields found their sweet spot?

The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024)

The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central...

28th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

​​RBNZ policy changes will ease lending standards​

The debt-to-income restrictions launched by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today won’t restrict the flow of new mortgage lending. In fact, the concurrent easing of restrictions on loan-to-value...

28th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Mission (almost) accomplished

The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of...

24th May 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit

There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will...

24th May 2024 · 7 mins read