Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: five questions for 2024 Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a... 24th January 2024 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest price pressures remain elevated January’s flash PMI surveys suggest that GDP growth in advanced economies ticked up from a very weak pace at the start of 2024. And with price pressures still strong, central banks will probably... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rate cuts are coming into view The Bank of Canada’s decision to drop its tightening bias today is the first step toward interest rate cuts, particularly as the Bank also hinted that it may be willing to look through elevated... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch March rate cut is data dependent At next week’s FOMC meeting, we don’t expect the Fed to hint at upcoming rate cuts and it may even maintain its tightening bias in the accompanying statement. Frankly, everything depends on the... 24th January 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC still only easing with caution The People’s Bank’s policy announcements today will provide only a small boost for China’s economy. Meaningful improvements in household or corporate borrowing would require substantial rate cuts or a... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting The central bank (BNM) left the overnight policy rate unchanged (at 3.0%) today and we think monetary policy is set for an extended pause as policymakers attempt to strike a balance between supporting... 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2024) EM GDP growth weakened over the second half of 2023, and we expect growth to remain subdued this year. Some EMs that underperformed last year will see modest recoveries, but many of the economies... 23rd January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks’ hawkish tones to be believed? Central banks will probably continue to push back on expectations of rate cuts at their scheduled policy announcements in the coming weeks. But with inflation and wage pressures clearly moderating, we... 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy normalisation is in sight The Bank of Japan sounds increasingly confident that it will be able to achieve its inflation target on a sustained basis. With Mr Ueda at the post-BOJ-meeting press conference again emphasising the... 23rd January 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) As core PCE inflation is on track to return to the 2% target by the middle of this year, we expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at every meeting from March onwards, with rates eventually... 22nd January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could disinflation go too far? We argued last week that there was little to support the idea that the “last mile” of getting inflation back to 2% will somehow be the hardest. But new data on rent inflation released this week raise... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB to step up easing, inflation softens again in Israel In Hungary, dovish comments from the central bank (MNB) deputy governor this week and recent softer-than-expected inflation data have prompted us to pencil in a larger 100bp interest rate cut at the... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Currency weakness unlikely to last, BNM on hold The recent fall in Asian currencies is likely to reverse later in the year, if as we anticipate, the US Fed starts to cut interest rates soon. A rebound in Asian currencies should create an... 19th January 2024 · 9 mins read
