Europe Economics Weekly

Misinterpreting the ECB

Most commentators and investors have concluded that yesterday’s ECB meeting signalled that an April rate cut is a near certainty. We disagree. While an April rate cut is still our base case, the risks...

26th January 2024 · 9 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024)

The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will probably hike in April rather than March

Most of the plunge in inflation in Tokyo in January was driven by one-off factors that the Bank of Japan is stripping out from its inflation gauges. However, the underlying trend in inflation...

26th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Tax cut revamp unlikely to prove inflationary

Some commentators have raised concerns that the Australian government's changes to forthcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts could add fuel to the inflation fire. However, we remain sceptical, given that...

26th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

Is Turkey’s policy U-turn the real deal?

Turkey’s policy U-turn underway since the election last year has been relatively encouraging so far and policymakers’ commitment to orthodoxy has given us reason for optimism. While the scale of the...

25th January 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to cut rates in second half of year

The Riksbank is set to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week but we think it will begin to cut rates in the second quarter and reduce them faster than policymakers are forecasting.

25th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB signals summer rate cut

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and stuck to the argument that a first rate cut is most likely in the summer. An earlier move is still possible if the inflation data are weak in the next few...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Interest Rate Announcement

The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

ECB sticks to its guns

Today’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the tone of the press release, were as expected. In the forthcoming press conference, Christine Lagarde is likely to push back against...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Inflation threat from EM labour markets easing

Wage growth remains soft across much of Emerging Asia, supporting our view that the region’s central banks will start monetary easing cycles sooner than most expect. Wage pressures have softened...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

The 250bp interest rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) today, to 45.00%, marks an end to its tightening cycle. Encouragingly, the communications were relatively hawkish and suggest that...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2

Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank policy rate to fall quickly in H2

Norges Bank today reiterated that it will leave its policy rate at 4.5% “for some time”. But we think that inflation will fall rapidly this year, so when the Bank does start to cut rates, it will do...

25th January 2024 · 2 mins read

BoE Watch

Taking the first steps towards rate cuts

At the policy meeting on Thursday 1 st February, the Bank of England will probably throw in the towel on the pretence that interest rates could rise further and take the first steps towards cutting...

25th January 2024 · 6 mins read