RBI Watch Policy pivot still several months away We agree with consensus expectations that the MPC will keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 8 th February. Further ahead, the strength of the economy and still-elevated... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A tale of two central banks Inflation is moderating rapidly in Australia, despite elevated shelter costs. Moreover, there's little evidence to suggest that a tight housing market is supporting domestic demand through housing... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico? Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Rate cuts may come sooner than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent a signal that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back strongly against the idea that rates... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (1st Feb. 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank on track for May rate cut The Riksbank signalled unequivocally in today’s policy statement that interest rates may be cut sooner than they previously anticipated. While a March rate cut is possible, particularly if the January... 1st February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Powell suggests first rate cut more likely to be May Based on the surprisingly explicit steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through today’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on the Fed and financial markets Ahead of the first Fed meeting of 2024, we think there are two points for investors to note about how the central bank might affect markets this year. 31st January 2024 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Tight real policy stance supports case for big rate cuts The drop in inflation across advanced economies has caused real interest rates to rise by even more than nominal rates. While there are various ways to measure real interest rates, they all confirm... 31st January 2024 · 17 mins read
