Capital Daily

Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only...

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

A little good news under the hood of services inflation

Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

18th June 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut rates next year

The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut

Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but...

18th June 2024 · 10 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2024)

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts

The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget

Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Bank will hike its policy rate once more in July

The Bank of Japan disappointed markets today by announcing that it will only present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at its July meeting. We think it will also deliver a final policy...

14th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation

While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read