Global Economics Update

What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves?

The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Economics Update

BoE may cut rates in August, but rates may reach 3.00% later

The Bank of England predictably left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today but continued to give the impression that the pieces of the puzzle are almost in place for it to cut rates. This lends some...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Policy easing to begin soon

We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

Europe Economic Outlook

On the mend

The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in...

20th June 2024 · 28 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year

The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Policy Rate (June 2024)

Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%), but hinted at possible rate cuts later in the year, provided that the rupiah stabilises against the US dollar. The central bank’s dovish...

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024)

Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024)

The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing

The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read