Latin America Economics Update

Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB

Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next...

8th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

What to make of May’s plunge in household spending

The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Kenya, austerity and the IMF, SARB eyeing up cuts?

After being forced to withdraw the 2024/25 Budget, Kenya’s President Ruto outlined new fiscal plans today that will go some way towards easing concerns among investors and the IMF. Elsewhere, comments...

5th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle...

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause

The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking

With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC may struggle to tame the bond market

The PBOC will soon start borrowing government bonds, opening the door to sales aimed at arresting the decline in long-term yields, which the central bank sees as a growing financial stability risk...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Minutes (June 11-12)

The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs

We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However...

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read