Asia Economics Weekly Korea: assessing the impact of the strike at Samsung Even if the strike by workers at Samsung Electronics is brought to an end soon, it has served to highlight once again the inflexibility of Korea’s labour market and the poor state of industrial... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Despite some snags, inflation will cool in earnest Administered price inflation is looking to be somewhat sticky in Australia, reflecting a combination of tax increases on select goods and elevated cost pressures across a range of public services. On... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan will hike rates to 0.5% by year-end The persistent strength in producer prices of manufactured goods means that underlying inflation will probably settle around the Bank of Japan's 2% target over the second half of the year rather than... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update How could Trump influence the Fed? It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Interest rates on hold amid strong price pressures The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes? 1722412800 With shifting Japanese inflation dynamics likely to shrink the Bank of Japan’s opportunity to tighten policy in the coming months, we think its July meeting will
Asia Economics Update Dovish hold from the Bank of Korea, cuts coming soon The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 3.5%, but dropped clear hints that interest rate cuts would be coming soon. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to fall further... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (June 2024) The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Crunch time for the Bank of England? 1721291400 We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data.
