Bank of Canada Watch Bank set for another rate cut Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now... 17th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Policy Rate (July 2024) Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut in Q4. Today’s decision was correctly predicted by all... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2024) Today’s CPI release confirms that inflation is all but certain to return to the RBNZ’s 1-3% target by Q3. In the context of an extremely weak economy and a rapidly loosening labour market, there is a... 17th July 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update New forecasts for inflation and policy rates The upside surprise to headline consumer price inflation last month has all but ended hopes of a rate cut at the RBI’s August policy meeting. But we think that the conditions will be in place for... 16th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank surveys show need for looser policy The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly... 15th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate edged up to 34.2% y/y in June on the back of the pass-through from previous naira falls. But we think this marks the peak and inflation should start to decline. If... 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data point to some divergence in GDP growth in major economies in Q2. On the... 15th July 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul 2024) The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend that should continue over the coming quarters. However, it will be a while before policymakers can be confident that... 15th July 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Higher interest rates won’t trigger housing meltdown While higher interest rates will make owner-occupied housing less affordable, the Bank of Japan will only tighten policy gradually so detached house prices will probably hold up well. By contrast... 15th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria rate cuts, Kenya instability, Ghana inflation Nigeria’s central bank governor this week hinted that rate cuts may soon be on the cards but there are still upside inflation risks on the horizon that could scupper those plans. Meanwhile, Kenyan... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation pressures rapidly easing Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the Fed is looking for “more good data” to strengthen its confidence that inflation will return to 2%. That is exactly what the June CPI and PPI... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the stickiness of services inflation? Disinflation in the services sector seems to have stalled in several advanced economies this year. That’s partly because the easiest wins related to food and energy effects are behind us and also... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The surprise jump in headline consumer price inflation last month will be enough to convince any MPC members who may have been leaning toward rate cuts at the August policy meeting that conditions are... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Spain versus England: An economics match-up If the economic outlook translated to success on the football pitch, faster GDP growth and lower interest rates may mean Spain has the edge over England to win the men’s Euros on Sunday night. We're... 12th July 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC narrows rate corridor, overcapacity worsens The PBOC’s expanded open market operations effectively narrow the interest rate corridor for short-term interbank rates. This won’t have any immediate consequences for monetary conditions. But it does... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
