US Fed Watch

Better inflation data needed for June rate cut

Data dependence will remain the order of the day at next week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed officials likely to leave their interest rate projections broadly unchanged and signal that they are still...

13th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024)

Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in industry at the start of this year. But this...

13th March 2024 · 0 mins read

Africa Economics Update

The naira’s march to fair value

The devaluation of the Nigerian naira earlier this year appears to have brought it much closer to fair value, which will help to put the balance of payments on a more stable footing. The key now is...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

India Economic Outlook

World-beating growth set to continue

India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third...

13th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

Negative rates and YCC will end this month

With this year’s Shunto resulting in larger pay hikes than anyone had anticipated, we now expect the Bank of Japan to end both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control at the upcoming meeting...

13th March 2024 · 11 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors are right not to fret too much about inflation

Stronger-than-expected US core CPI data did not trigger as big a reassessment in rate expectations as they did last month in financial markets, and we still forecast the Fed to start easing policy...

12th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts

The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect...

12th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (February 2024)

The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view...

12th March 2024 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

12th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Event

Japan Drop-In: The BOJ March meeting and the end of negative rates

1710835200

Economists from our Japan and Markets teams held an online briefing shortly after the March decision to brief clients on the meeting outcome, talk through any market implicati

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (February 2024)

February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest.

11th March 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Weekly

Macklem leaves the door open for a June cut

Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies...

8th March 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little...

8th March 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries

The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to...

8th March 2024 · 7 mins read