Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: contraction in Q2, weak H2 Second quarter GDP figures for Korea, due to be published next week, are likely to show the economy contracted last quarter. Growth in the second half of the year is also likely to struggle, with weak... 19th July 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in the Union Budget The full Union Budget for FY24/25 - which will be unveiled on Tuesday - will provide an important indication of how much the BJP is willing to concede to its coalition partners. It will also give an... 19th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Additional semiconductor curbs won’t cripple exports Japan's government seems to have intervened in the foreign exchange markets to strengthen the yen yet again last week and we think that the chances of a sustained rebound in the yen are rising... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The Third Plenum and China’s bond rally China’s bond market seems to be caught between the country’s slowing economy and the PBOC’s desire to push long-end yields higher. The announcements from the Third Plenum this week probably won’t help... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ now likely to start cutting rates in August Given the recent slate of weak economic data we now expect the RBNZ to start loosening policy in August, rather than in November as we were previously predicting. For one thing, timely activity data... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB opens the door to rate cuts The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to leave its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% was of little surprise but there was increased optimism on the MPC that inflation is moving towards the 4.5% mid... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update September cut likely but ECB in no rush after that Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates were in line with expectations. The overall tone was arguably slightly dovish... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2024) Today’s decisions to leave interest rates on hold and give no clear signals about the future path of interest rates was in line with expectations. A cut in September still seems more likely than not... 18th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024) EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all” While the global monetary policy loosening cycle is now well underway, there is more nuance than you might assume. Recent data have made us more confident that cuts (or further cuts) are to come in... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Event ANZ Drop-In: Could Q2 inflation push the RBA to hike again? 1722405600 DM central banks may not be done raising rates – a too-hot Australian Q2 inflation report on 31st July could push the RBA to hike at its meeting
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May 2024) While the easing in wage growth in May was broadly in line with what the consensus and the Bank of England expected, it probably won’t offset the Bank’s concerns about the stickiness of services... 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2024) Although job growth remained healthy last month, it didn’t prevent the unemployment rate from rising anew. And we suspect the rise in joblessness has much further to run. 18th July 2024 · 3 mins read
