US Fed Watch Fed warming up to a September rate cut With the disinflationary trend broadening out and the unemployment rate rising, recent comments from Fed officials suggest that the FOMC is on track to cut interest rates in September. While the... 24th July 2024 · 9 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.1% y/y in June and with core inflation returning to the mid-point of the SARB’s 3-6% target range, we think the SARB will be in position to... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank will lift rates to 0.5% by year-end At its upcoming meeting, we expect the Bank of Japan to announce a reduction in its monthly bond purchases to ¥2tn over the next couple of years, with an initial reduction to ¥5tn. And we expect the... 24th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing... 23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Turkey’s central bank left its key policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, and the communications accompanying the decision suggest that interest rate cuts are still some way off. While most analysts... 23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Pay rise for NHS staff and teachers not a big inflationary risk We doubt the independent pay review bodies’ recommendations for the government to give teachers and NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise will prevent wage growth from slowing to 3.0% by the end of next year. But... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2024) The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We... 22nd July 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Jul. 2024) The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria spending, SA investment, SARB to cut soon Nigeria announced plans this week to raise 2024 budget spending again. Funding will come via a windfall tax on bank profits, but more measures will be needed to permanently boost revenues if Nigeria’s... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CPI data just about clear path for another rate cut Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter disinflation adds to case for September rate cut We were initially uncertain whether the notable slowdown in shelter inflation in June’s CPI report was the start of the long-awaited easing in housing inflation, but the latest all-tenant rent data... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services inflation still sticky, little Olympic cheer The full breakdown of the euro-zone’s June inflation data suggests that the recent stickiness of services inflation has not just been due to Taylor Swift’s concerts. An ECB rate cut in September still... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slump in new homes makes housing target a stretch Given the UK recently got much closer to the government’s target of building 300,000 homes a year than is acknowledged, you might think that the Planning and Infrastructure Bill announced in the King... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
