Africa Economics Update Weak demand holding back S. Africa’s economy The fading drag from load-shedding was widely expected to allow a recovery in South Africa’s economy this year, but this hasn’t materialised. We think that weak demand is to blame, itself a symptom of... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Upside risks to interest rates have increased We still think that a fading in services inflation and below-target CPI inflation will prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% now to 3.00% by the end of 2025, rather than to 4.00%... 31st July 2024 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will hike rates yet again in October The Bank of Japan outlined a plan for reducing its bond purchases and hiked its policy rate by 20bp today. We think it will follow up with another 20bp hike at its October meeting. 31st July 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Inflation a bigger deal than carry trade for AUD & NZD We think the yen’s rally will continue, but suspect that won’t stop the Australian and New Zealand dollars – alleged victims of the carry trade’s unwind – from making some ground over the next year or... 31st July 2024 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin... 31st July 2024 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q2 means that Banxico is likely to resume its easing cycle at next week’s Board meeting with a 25bp cut to 10.75%. 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is EM central bank independence under threat? Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024) Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
