Europe Economics Weekly Q1 stagnation, rate cut in June likely but not done deal Christine Lagarde’s comments this week suggest that a first ECB rate cut in June remains most likely but there is a significant risk that the easing cycle will start later. Meanwhile, surveys released... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024) GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here... 22nd March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold, at 16.00%, for a second consecutive meeting as expected today and there were few notable changes in its press statement. The central bank... 22nd March 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong labour market complicates picture for RBA Although the RBA toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting on Tuesday, yesterday's frothy jobs report may well spur a reversal on that front. Indeed, the labour market appears to be holding up a lot... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ won’t hike rates any further With underlying inflation continuing to moderate, we don’t expect the Bank of Japan to follow up the ending of negative interest rates with further policy rate hikes. But while the Bank has kept its... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some global market implications of BoJ tightening Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The doves have it – what next for markets? This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term... 21st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Euro-zone lagging behind at the end of Q1 The flash PMIs for March suggest that the euro-zone economy is still flatlining, while the UK and Japan seem to be pulling out of recession heading into Q2. The survey indicators of price pressures... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall further as GDP growth slows Although we expect GDP growth to slow to a below-potential pace over the next few quarters, we then anticipate a pick-up late this year, as monetary policy flips from a headwind to a tailwind. Our... 21st March 2024 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Update Slight dovish tilt, and BoE will become more dovish before long With the Bank of England striking a slightly more dovish tone whilst keeping interest rates at 5.25% and inflation likely to fall further and faster than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more... 21st March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: surprise hike unlikely to be followed by further tightening Despite the booming economy, inflationary pressures in Taiwan are likely to remain subdued. Accordingly, we think today’s unexpected rate hike by the central bank (CBC) will prove to be a case of one... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly raised its key policy rate by 500bp at today’s meeting, to 50.00%, and its hawkish communications leave open the possibility of another rate hike in April. With the... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
