Europe Economics Update Riksbank to continue loosening policy this year Unlike their counterparts in the Fed, policymakers at the Riksbank have ruled out making a bumper 50bp rate cut anytime soon. Instead, they are likely to cut their key policy rate by 25bp at next week... 18th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24) South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Economy slowing again The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming quarters. The core economies are the weakest, led by Germany which is probably in another technical... 18th September 2024 · 28 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rate cuts on the horizon The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years... 18th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.) The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2024) CPI inflation stayed at 2.2% in August (consensus & CE 2.2%, BoE 2.4%), but the rise in services inflation from 5.2% to 5.6% suggests the Bank of England will probably press the pause button on... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will stick to hawkish message The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its hawkish message at its upcoming meeting. And while GDP growth is set to disappoint the Bank’s optimistic projections, it will take a clear... 17th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (August '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dipped to 32.2% y/y in August, confirming the disinflation trend is firmly on course as the pass through from previous sharp falls in the naira continues to fade... 16th September 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shelter inflation the last piece of the puzzle The 25bp vs 50bp debate, which seemed settled following Governor Christopher Waller’s cautious speech shortly after the August Employment Report, was blown back open this week by what appeared to be... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
