Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in April to 69.8% y/y (consensus 70.3%) offers encouraging signs that price pressures have softened again. The 3.2% m/m increase was...

3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ may keep hiking even if inflation target isn’t met

Even though the economic case for preventing the yen from sliding is much weaker, the Ministry of Finance seems to have responded with an even more forceful round of foreign exchange interventions...

3rd May 2024 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Central banks won’t breathe easy just yet

New Zealand's labour market was in worse shape last quarter than most had anticipated. What's more, with the economy clearly struggling, labour market slack is likely to rise further. However, with...

3rd May 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Can the BoC risk diverging from the Fed?

Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large...

2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to start easing cycle

The Riksbank is likely to kick off its easing cycle next week by cutting its policy rate from 4.0% to 3.75%. Beyond that, our forecast is for 100bp of rate cuts this year which is substantially more...

2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp again today (to 5.25%) were slightly more hawkish than expected, but we still think that a...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: inflation to return to target by mid-year

Korea is one of the few countries in the region where inflation is still above target. However, with economic growth set to slow and the government stepping up efforts to bring food prices down, we...

2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Will high labour cost growth thwart disinflation?

Rapid growth in unit labour costs poses an upside risk to core inflation in many advanced economies. However, firms’ pricing power is weakening and we think that it will continue to do so. As a result...

2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read

BoE Watch

Could the BoE tee up a June rate cut?

The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 9th May and we suspect it will imply it’s still not quite ready to cut rates. That said, there’s a chance it instead...

2nd May 2024 · 9 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss CPI (April)

The jump in Switzerland’s inflation rate in April was largely due to increases in the volatile food and fuel components. While the data increase our confidence that the SNB will not cut interest rates...

2nd May 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

Fed biding its time

Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. Moreover, while he...

1st May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (May)

The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s statement...

1st May 2024 · 1 min read

FX Markets Update

Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go

We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is...

30th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Global Inflation Watch – Bumpy ride back to target

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Is progress stalling on efforts to get inflation under control? Why are price pressures proving more stubborn than expected?

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Apr. 24)

China’s economy grew at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2024. Our China Activity Proxy suggests this was on the back of strong external demand. While fiscal support should continue to keep the...

30th April 2024 · 0 mins read