Asia Economics Weekly BSP to sound dovish, inflation eases in Taiwan The central bank in the Philippines is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. However, the sharp slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter means the BSP... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Why we still think rate cuts will commence in Q3 The consensus is now expecting the RBI to begin its easing cycle in Q4. But the inflation outlook, as well as recent measures to ease liquidity constraints, suggest to us that a policy pivot will... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (April 2024) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y last month and, more importantly, the sharp decline in underlying services inflation suggests that, despite the hawkish language in the Copom statement on... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s Pemex problem, Copom’s politicisation Comments from Mexican officials this week that the government could take some of Pemex’s debts onto its own balance sheet would ease the firm's default risks. But it would come at the expense of a... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB-Fed divergence; new CDU manifesto The Riksbank joined the club of European central banks that cut rates ahead of the Fed this week. The ECB is almost certain to follow suit in June and we think it would take a very big hawkish shift... 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Car production to drive Q2 GDP rebound Shutdowns at major carmakers were a key reason behind the likely plunge in GDP last quarter, but with production now having been resumed, a strong rebound in activity is on the cards. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, budget in the spotlight Although the RBA left rates unchanged at its meeting this week, Governor Bullock stated that the Board was prepared to raise rates if it had to. Against this backdrop, there have been concerns from... 10th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The floods in southern Brazil: the economic impact The scale of the economic impact of the floods that have affected much of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul will depend on how long it takes for the waters to recede and for reconstruction... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (May) Poland’s central bank (NBP) left its policy rate on hold as expected at 5.75% today and we don’t expect any change for some time. Still, there is now a growing possibility of an interest rate cut... 9th May 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update BoE may cut rates in June and reduce them to 3.00% next year While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2024) O ur Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The strength of GDP growth in the first quarter is unlikely to be sustained, with growth set to... 9th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (May 2024) While leaving interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, the Bank of England gave the impression that it is close to cutting interest rates and also hinted that rates may need to fall further... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its overnight policy rate (OPR) on hold (at 3.00%) today, and the tone of its statement supports our view that rates will be left unchanged throughout 2024. The... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
