US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (May 2024)

The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we...

21st May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (May)

The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 50bp again today, to 7.25%, will be followed by more cautious monetary easing over the rest of this year. We currently forecast...

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

RBA Minutes (May 2024)

21st May 2024 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024)

Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming...

20th May 2024 · 1 min read

Central banks will go their own way

Africa Economics Weekly

ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation

South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

US-China tariffs raise stakes for EU

This week’s decision by the US government to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% may have been largely political and symbolic but it raises the stakes for Europe, which will complete its own...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone services inflation should keep falling

There will be some upward pressure on services inflation in the coming months from tourism-related items and the pass-through of higher oil prices. But we think that this will be more than offset by...

17th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

BI on hold, new leaders, Biden tariffs

The recent recovery in the rupiah means Bank Indonesia is unlikely to follow up April’s surprise hike with another interest rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Korea could prove to be...

17th May 2024 · 8 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Weak activity won’t forestall BoJ tightening

On the Bank of Japan's favoured measure, spare capacity has remained tight across the economy despite the recent weakness of GDP - which this week's data confirmed extended into Q1. That's another...

17th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Government leaves RBA to go it alone

Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall...

17th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive

Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past...

16th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia

Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about...

16th May 2024 · 7 mins read