Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%), and with growth set to remain strong we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2024 and 2025. In contrast, the... 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed projects one cut this year, but notes inflation progress The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (June 11-12) The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that economic activity has continued to improve in the past... 12th June 2024 · 0 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (May 2024) Consumer price inflation came in cooler than most expected last month, which should reassure the RBI as it considers when to begin its easing cycle. We remain comfortable with our long-held view that... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Announcement (June) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged and appeared in no rush to loosen policy. We think the weakness of the economy and very low inflation will persuade the central bank... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (May 2024) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a... 11th June 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr. 2024) The stickiness of wage growth in April will be a lingering concern for the Bank of England. But with employment falling sharply and the unemployment rate climbing, we think wage growth will soon be... 11th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (June 2024) The latest data has been a bit stronger than we had anticipated and suggests that the recovery in euro-zone activity may continue at a moderate pace. The labour market remains tight, with unemployment... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan cuts rate, but further easing to be gradual The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a 150bps rate cut, and while further cuts are likely, ongoing negotiations with the IMF for a new long-term loan deal mean that... 10th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage growth may still be a concern for the Bank The Bank of Canada kicked off its loosened cycle this week and the accompanying communications left the door open for another cut in July, although still-strong wage pressures are one reason why the... 7th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data not yet a cause for concern We don’t think that the below-potential GDP growth implied by the recent activity data is a cause for concern yet, particularly while the labour market appears healthy. That will keep the Fed squarely... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read
