Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will only cut rates next year

The RBA discussed another rate hike at today’s meeting and an upside surprise to Q2 inflation could force its hand at its August meeting. However, with capacity constraints easing and government...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Focus

Korea: growth to slow, inflation to fall, rates to be cut

Korea’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter but there are already signs it is losing momentum, and we expect growth to struggle over the coming year. Export growth is likely to ease a little, but...

18th June 2024 · 10 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (June 2024)

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts

The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation

The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Malaysia subsidy cuts, BoK minutes, Pakistan budget

Headline inflation in Malaysia has been among the lowest in Asia but that is soon set to change now that the government is pushing ahead with long-planned subsidy cuts aimed at improving the public...

14th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Bank will hike its policy rate once more in July

The Bank of Japan disappointed markets today by announcing that it will only present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at its July meeting. We think it will also deliver a final policy...

14th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Higher bond yields won’t prompt massive repatriation

While 10-year JGB yields have fallen well below 1% as the BoJ today delayed the announcement of tapering plans to its July meeting, they are still around a decade-high. The ability of Japanese...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past impact of energy rebates

This week the Queensland government followed in the footsteps of the Western Australian government and the Commonwealth by announcing significantly more generous energy subsidies for households. With...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Bank of Japan Meeting (Jun. 24)

The Bank of Japan announced today that it will present a detailed plan for reducing its bond purchases at the upcoming meeting in July and we think it will also deliver a final policy rate hike then...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE not ready to follow in the ECB’s footsteps…yet

Far more interesting than the probable decision by the Bank of England to leave interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday 20th June will be any clues on how soon and how far rates will be cut. If inflation...

13th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB to keep rates on hold for rest of the year

The SNB is likely to keep rates on hold at 1.5% at its meeting next week as inflation in Q2 so far has been in line with the its forecast in March. Moreover, the latest data on wage growth were much...

13th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank to stick to hawkish tone

Norges Bank will leave its policy rate at 4.5% next week and reiterate that rate cuts are some way off. We think it will wait until December to start loosening monetary policy.

13th June 2024 · 2 mins read