Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2024)

The weak economic backdrop means there is a strong case for the Bank of Canada to follow its larger 50bp cut today, which took the policy rate to 3.75%, with another 50bp move at the next meeting in...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep. '24)

The drop in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y, in September, means that the SARB will almost certainly continue its easing cycle. The chances of a 50bp cut at its the next meeting...

23rd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Deflation risk to hang over the SNB

We expect Swiss inflation to average less than 0.5% next year and there are several key downside risks that could push inflation over the edge, namely lower oil prices than we expect, a stronger franc...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The Hungarian central bank acknowledged the possibility that interest rates could be left on hold for an “extended period” after it paused its easing cycle today. We maintain our forecast that the...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

ANZ Drop-In: Australian Q3 CPI and the timing of RBA rate cuts

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Australia is exceptional. Monetary easing cycles may be in full swing in many advanced economies, but the Reserve Bank shows no appetite to cut rates yet.

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (Sep.)

The much weaker-than-expected Polish retail sales data for September suggest that the economy slowed more than we had been expecting in Q3. Even so, we think that this weakness was probably caused by...

22nd October 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Getting a clear read on labour market conditions

The September release of US non-farm payrolls was just the start of a run of strong employment releases in advanced economies this month, reigniting fears about pay growth and inflation. However, when...

21st October 2024 · 13 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE: rapid wage growth to keep fuelling inflation

The persistent strength of wage growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) reflects continued tightness in labour markets and lingering effects from the 2022-23 inflation shock. While the latter...

21st October 2024 · 15 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Is Brazil’s economy overheating?

Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while...

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia to drive next phase of the EM easing cycle

The outcomes of the EM central bank meetings since the beginning of October underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM easing cycle. Central banks in Central and Eastern Europe...

21st October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Loan Prime Rate (Oct. 2024)

Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this...

21st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for...

18th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Current accounts, BRICS preview, Sinwar death

The current account data released across the region over the past week show that external positions have continued to improve in some countries (notably Turkey), while in others they are deteriorating...

18th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Week of soft data sets up 50bp cut

A string of soft data releases this week should give the Bank of Canada the necessary confidence to step up the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut at its meeting next week.

18th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Does a £40bn “funding gap” mean £40bn of tax rises?

The Chancellor’s £40bn “funding gap” doesn’t mean that the Budget on 30th October will involve £40bn of tax rises. Some of this “funding gap” will probably be paid for with higher borrowing and some...

18th October 2024 · 6 mins read