UK Economics Rapid Response

Bank of England Policy Announcement (20th Jun. 2024)

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon on the brink, Hajj underway, Morocco rates

Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel have ratcheted up in recent weeks and now threatens to draw Lebanon directly into the war. The economy is already in the midst of one of the worst crises on...

20th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024)

After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

India Economic Outlook

Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins

Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s...

20th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB cuts rates again, but likely to be last one this year

The SNB’s decision to cut the policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was probably more influenced by the appreciation of the franc over the last two months than any perceived easing in domestic inflation...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia Policy Rate (June 2024)

Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%), but hinted at possible rate cuts later in the year, provided that the rupiah stabilises against the US dollar. The central bank’s dovish...

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (June 2024)

Norges Bank’s verbal guidance and updated interest rate projections reinforce the message that it won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the year at the earliest.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June. 2024)

Today’s decision by the SNB to reduce its policy rate from 1.5% to 1.25% was correctly anticipated by two thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters. (We were in the minority anticipating a hold.) In...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024)

The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing

The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (May 2024)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.3% in April to 2.0% in May (BoE 1.9%, consensus 2.0%, CE 1.8%) probably won’t be enough to persuade the Bank of England to cut interest rates from 5.25% tomorrow. And...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to cut its base rate by a smaller 25bp today, to 7.00%, were fairly hawkish and support our view that the base rate will only...

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

A little good news under the hood of services inflation

Data released this morning suggest that May’s surprisingly large jump in euro-zone services inflation may have been due to the most unlikely of culprits: Taylor Swift. So to some extent, the ECB can...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

GDP growth pick-up on a fragile footing

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

18th June 2024 · 20 mins read