Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024) 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Malaysia: Monetary Policy Meeting (November 2024) 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set for a slow disinflation process Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in... 5th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: more easing likely as inflation falls again With inflation falling back further in October, growth struggling and the property market in the doldrums, the conditions are in place for the Bank of Korea to cut interest rates again soon. We think... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bond sell-off: lessons from 2015 The rise in Brazilian local currency government bond yields this year is now on a scale similar to that seen during its fiscal crisis in 2015. Back then, bond yields only started to fall back when... 4th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Oct.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in October, to 48.6% y/y, is likely to dash any remaining hopes that a monetary easing cycle will start this year. The risks now seem skewed towards... 4th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data strengthens case for another 50bp cut While there were some positives to take from this week’s GDP data release, it still points to an economy stuck in a period of below potential growth. This reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary back in recession, War in Ukraine The Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe this week continued a bleak run of activity data for the region, with Hungary’s economy significantly underperforming expectations. The risks to our GDP growth... 1st November 2024 · 8 mins read
