Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (June 2024) The Riksbank’s decision to leave rates unchanged was as expected and does not suggest that policymakers are regretting their decision to cut in May. Instead, today’s statement says that they want to... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (June 2024) The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 4.1% y/y, for the first half of June won’t change the picture that the central bank’s easing cycle is over – for this year at least. 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025 Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation... 26th June 2024 · 20 mins read
US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Morocco Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024) Morocco’s central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) announced this afternoon that it has cut its key policy interest rate by 25bp, to 2.75%. We expect that the Bank will continue to tread cautiously, as the... 25th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB respond to a French fiscal crisis? If the results of France’s election, or actions of the next French government, trigger contagion to other euro-zone countries’ bond markets, the ECB could respond by purchasing their bonds using the... 25th June 2024 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 25th June 2024 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Next government to benefit from economic tailwind The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth... 25th June 2024 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024) Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty 1719820800 Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024) The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
