Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024)

GDP growth is likely to pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back and gives way to monetary easing cycles whilst the external environment will also be more favourable for most...

28th June 2024 · 0 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Bolivia’s coup attempt, Lula attacks the BCB

The coup attempt in Bolivia this week shouldn’t be read as a warning sign for other Latin American countries. But it does shine a spotlight on institutional fragility in the region – as evidenced by...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Weak Korean activity data, dovish BSP, hawkish BoT

The latest monthly activity data for Korea suggest that the economy weakened again last month and that GDP will have contracted in the second quarter of the year. In addition, while the central bank...

28th June 2024 · 7 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jun. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has regained some momentum in recent quarters and should continue to do relatively...

28th June 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Weekly

Rebound in underlying inflation points to July rate hike

The yen weakened to multi-decade lows against the dollar this week and the Bank of Japan is getting increasingly worried that rising import costs are creating upside risks to inflation. Indeed, the...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA won’t loosen policy before mid-2025

Following the upside surprise in the May CPI data released this week, markets are now pricing in a nearly two-in-five chance that the RBA will hand down a 25bp hike by year-end. But there are good...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt blackouts, Morocco rate cut, Iran election

Gas shortages in Egypt have led to blackouts and hotter summers are likely to raise demand for energy in the future. Absent further large gas finds, Egypt’s time as a natural gas net exporter is...

27th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Czech National Bank to deliver another 50bp cut to its policy rate today, to 4.75%, was a dovish surprise to most analysts (although not ourselves). That said, the post-meeting...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

EM easing cycle moving into a new phase

Emerging markets in Asia and parts of Europe will continue to perform well and better than most expect this year, but we think that Latin America will lag behind. The EM monetary easing cycle is...

27th June 2024 · 26 mins read

Africa Economic Outlook

Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal...

27th June 2024 · 19 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to leave its main policy rate on hold again today, at 50.00%, was widely expected, and the continued hawkish communications support our view that...

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling...

27th June 2024 · 46 mins read

UK Markets Chart Pack

UK Markets Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

The stability of UK financial markets ahead of the UK general election is striking when compared to the sharp moves in French asset prices ahead of the French legislative elections. It’s probably...

27th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Money and lending growth likely to remain slow

May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued.

27th June 2024 · 2 mins read