Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya, austerity and the IMF, SARB eyeing up cuts? After being forced to withdraw the 2024/25 Budget, Kenya’s President Ruto outlined new fiscal plans today that will go some way towards easing concerns among investors and the IMF. Elsewhere, comments... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gridlock likely in France, ECB officials eye July pause The prospect of a hung parliament in France suggests the country is headed for political gridlock and somewhat looser fiscal policy but that a large-scale fiscal expansion probably won’t materialise... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC may struggle to tame the bond market The PBOC will soon start borrowing government bonds, opening the door to sales aimed at arresting the decline in long-term yields, which the central bank sees as a growing financial stability risk... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (June 11-12) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-June policy meeting reveal that, not surprisingly given the split in the interest rate projections released at that time, officials were split on the outlook for inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) The decision by Poland’s central bank (NBP) to leave its policy rate at 5.75% today came as no surprise and we doubt that policymakers will have scope to lower interest rates until the middle of next... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ’s tightening bias is on its last legs We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However... 3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: public finance concerns here to stay The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy... 2nd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (June 2024) It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs show recovery losing pace The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) Australian house price gains softened just a smidge in June as housing demand held up reasonably well. However, as strained affordability takes its toll, we still think that house price growth will... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read