Global Central Bank Watch Powerless central banks driven to tiers The use of tiered interest rates in Europe and Japan has given central banks a little more scope to cut interest rates without doing serious damage to the banking sector. But tiering has arguably also... 26th September 2019 · 14 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Currency ceiling to come back into the SNB’s toolkit Given that the SNB’s policy rate is already at -0.75%, fears of hitting the so-called ‘reversal rate’ are likely to make it unwilling to cut rates much further. With the ECB once again in easing mode... 25th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates on hold, but cut likely before year-end The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today, but with economic growth set to remain weak and concerns about the strength of the baht mounting, we think the central bank... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds likely to struggle from here The combination of a broad-based easing cycle in emerging markets and strong demand for risky assets has pushed local currency emerging market (EM) sovereign yields down sharply in 2019. However, we... 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more comfortable with its position when it left rates on hold today but we still think the Bank will cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update What will guide the BoJ’s “re-examination” of policy? The Bank of Japan’s announcement that it will “re-examine economic and price developments” at its meeting at the end of October has been widely interpreted as opening the door to a shift on policy. In... 24th September 2019 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch Rates will probably be cut to 0.75% in October The continued rise in the unemployment rate will probably prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to a fresh low of 0.75% at its meeting on Tuesday 1st October. And given that slack... 24th September 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A closer look at the SNB’s new tiering system The changes to the SNB’s tiering system, announced yesterday, are even more generous to domestic banks than they initially appear, and will help to ‘sugar the pill’ ahead of a probable rate cut. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Another small step towards lower rates The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, came in slightly lower for September. We think that more decisive cuts will materialize before long. 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC unlikely to follow its friends and loosen policy Given the drop in GDP in Q2, the fall in core inflation to an almost 3-year low in August and the ongoing Brexit drama, there was never much chance that the MPC would raise interest rates from 0.75%... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update TLTROs won’t turn the economy around The surprisingly low uptake of the ECB’s TLTROs today was probably a one-off, and uptake in December is likely to be stronger. But even if it is, we doubt that this will provide much of a boost to the... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan will not join Asia’s rate cutting cycle Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its key policy rate unchanged today at 1.375%, and with growth picking up we doubt it will be in any rush to join the region’s rate cutting cycle. We expect interest... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
