Japan Economics Weekly Are we any closer to a rate cut? This week brought more evidence that consumers rushed to bring forward spending ahead of the tax hike that took place on Tuesday. Meanwhile, capacity shortages are diminishing and firms are becoming... 4th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic easing cycle has further to run Having cut its key interest rate by 25bps this morning, we now expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to stay in easing mode over the coming months and to reduce rates to 2.75% by year-end. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to increase corporate bond purchases next year We think that the ECB will increase its monthly bond-buying next year by purchasing more corporate debt. This would lead to a marked pick-up in bond issuance, but only a small increase in investment. 2nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Natural unemployment rate probably still at 4% We still believe that the unemployment rate would have to fall to 4.0% to meet the RBA’s definition of full employment. With the actual unemployment rate now at 5.3% and rising, that means that the... 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA to cut rates to 0.5% by year-end The RBA cut interest rates to 0.75% as widely anticipated and we think it will lower rates to 0.5% by the end of the year. Rates approaching the zero lower bound will inevitably invite speculation... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in interbank rates not due to ECB tiering Suggestions that the recent rise in interbank rates was caused by the ECB’s new tiered interest rate system are wide of the mark. Instead, the increase reflects investors’ re-evaluation of the outlook... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks downplay expectations for more dovish policy The more hawkish-than-expected communications from central banks across the region this week suggest that markets should not get carried away with expectations for more accommodative monetary policy... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A primer on Norwegian interest rate expectations Assessing investors’ expectations about the future path of policy interest rates in Norway is not as straightforward as it is in other countries, not least neighbouring Sweden. In this Update we... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kuroda targets short end, “phenomenal” trade deal The shift in the Bank of Japan’s bond purchases from long towards short maturities has helped to lift very long-term yields from their recent lows. And if US Treasury yields rise further next year... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines easing cycle has further to run Today’s cut to the policy rate by the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) from 4.25% to 4.00% is unlikely to be the last in the easing cycle. With growth likely to disappoint and price pressures set... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
