FX Markets Update Revisiting the outlook for the renminbi & the yen The continued weakness of the renminbi and the yen against the US dollar despite the narrowing of interest rate differentials via-a-vis the US is something of a conundrum, but our sense remains that... 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Will the BOJ hike rates again before the policy window closes? 1722412800 With shifting Japanese inflation dynamics likely to shrink the Bank of Japan’s opportunity to tighten policy in the coming months, we think its July meeting will
Asia Economics Update Dovish hold from the Bank of Korea, cuts coming soon The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today at 3.5%, but dropped clear hints that interest rate cuts would be coming soon. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to fall further... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (June 2024) The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Crunch time for the Bank of England? 1721291400 We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data.
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next... 8th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What to make of May’s plunge in household spending The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
