Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.7% y/y in the middle of October, one of its lowest rates on record, means policymakers will (barring any hiccups in the final vote on pension reform later today)... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Further upside for sterling if Brexit deal is approved If Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is approved in Parliament soon, we expect the pound would rise from $1.29 now to about $1.35 and 10-year gilt yields would increase from 0.72% to around 0.90% by the end... 22nd October 2019 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Easing yet to come The newly-revamped Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, was unchanged in October. This will only increase pressure on the PBOC to ease funding costs for... 21st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBA to launch QE as inflation weakens further Underlying inflation was moored well below the lower end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band even as the housing market was booming and the labour market was tightening. With the unemployment rate set to... 21st October 2019 · 17 mins read
India Economics Weekly Credit growth likely to rebound soon The continued slowdown in credit growth in September challenges our view that the economy is set to recover after a weak first half of the year. But with lending rates now beginning to drop in earnest... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Stimulus in Korea, Jokowi’s second term, IMF forecasts GDP figures due to be released next week are likely to show Korea’s economy remained very subdued in Q3 – we have pencilled in growth of just 0.4% q/q. But with fiscal and monetary policy being... 18th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will eventually push the QE button The drop in the unemployment rate in September means that the RBA won’t cut interest rates in November. But we still expect the labour market and underlying inflation to weaken over the coming months... 18th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly JGB yields to rise next year despite lower BoJ buying The Bank of Japan is on course to reduce its government bond holdings next year. But the Bank is merely reacting to market conditions rather than setting the tone itself. Our view that risk aversion... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Divide and exit Mario Draghi’s last meeting as ECB president is unlikely to be the good-natured celebration of his achievements that he might have hoped for. Instead, attention will focus on the growing divisions on... 17th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian rate expectations: is exuberance setting in? The shift in market expectations in Brazil towards much larger interest rate cuts by early 2020 now looks overdone. However, expectations for the Selic rate over a longer time horizon (2-5 years) look... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate declined in September. But we think it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise again, forcing the RBA to provide additional... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet heading back above $4trn The Fed’s move to begin purchasing $60bn of Treasury bills per month will eventually push the size of its balance sheet back up to $4trn over the coming year, not far below its $4.2trn peak. However... 16th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts, more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate from 1.50% to 1.25% today and with growth set to remain subdued and price pressures likely to remain very weak, we are expecting more easing next year. 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
