Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown worsens The focus on political risk and Lebanon’s growing debt problem have meant that the sharp slowdown in growth across large parts of the region has gone unnoticed. The latest figures suggest that the... 29th October 2019 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle shifts up a gear The Russian central bank’s decision to opt for a 50bp rate cut today (to 6.50%) and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement support our view that the easing cycle has further to run. As things... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lack of fiscal stimulus will force the RBA’s hand The new Secretary to the Treasury endorsed the government’s hands-off approach to fiscal policy this week. We suspect the Australian government could increase spending significantly to support the... 25th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to remain on hold next week We now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by another 25bp next week, which could result in a renewed strengthening of the yen and increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to lower... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Bank on hold, for now There is little reason to expect the Bank to alter its policy rate next week but, with the surveys continuing to point to below-potential GDP growth and weaker inflation ahead, we expect the Bank to... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi bows out, but further policy support to come Outgoing President Mario Draghi defended the ECB’s decision last month to introduce a raft of measures and downplayed the Governing Council’s divisions. As euro-zone growth is set to remain weak and... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: further easing, but rates to go up by mid-2020 September’s plunge in inflation alongside the removal of US sanctions gave the Turkish central bank the green light to deliver another larger-than-expected interest rate cut today and the easing cycle... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Hawkish Riksbank to reverse course in 2020 Having left its repo rate on hold at -0.25% this morning, we do not doubt the Riksbank’s clear intent to raise it to zero in December. However, with economic growth set to slow in 2020, and underlying... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: approaching the end of the easing cycle Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates again today and signalled that its main priority remains supporting the struggling economy. However, if the rupiah starts to drop back against the US dollar over... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to keep policy rates unchanged The economic data have weakened a little further since the Bank’s September meeting. But amid continued concerns about the impact of loose policy on financial stability, we aren’t convinced that the... 24th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to cut rates again amid economic slowdown With the markets still fully pricing in another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting and officials doing nothing to push back against those expectations, there is little point trying to deny that... 23rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Would QE work in Korea? There have been suggestions that the Bank of Korea (BoK) might soon need to adopt some of the unconventional policy measures that are being tried by the world’s major central banks. However, evidence... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal stimulus urgently needed but unlikely We estimate that a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP would still be consistent with maintaining Australia’s AAA-rating. Unfortunately, fiscal policy probably won’t come to the rescue, leaving... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
