Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What will New Zealand’s policymakers do in a crisis? Our central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5% will be enough to weather the economic slowdown in 2020. And if required, fiscal policy and macroprudential tools could be used to help... 5th November 2019 · 18 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Markets expect BoJ rate cut next year, we don’t The surge in retail sales in September increases the chances of a steep slump in spending after the sales tax hike on 1 st October. And the rise in the unemployment rate in September suggests that... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong goods inflation probably won’t last The resilience in Q3 inflation was driven by the strongest increase in goods prices in a decade. But with import price growth now slowing, we think that strength won’t last. Meanwhile, we’ve lifted... 1st November 2019 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Default fears crystallising The spotlight has shifted back onto weak sovereign debt positions in Frontier Markets this month after the election of a left-wing president in Argentina and growing political instability in Lebanon... 31st October 2019 · 8 mins read
BoE Watch A loosening bias emerging Unless the headwinds of weak global growth and Brexit uncertainty fade, the next move in interest rates may be down. But the chance of a Brexit deal in January means the majority of the Committee will... 31st October 2019 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: One more cut and done The statement accompanying last night’s Copom meeting gave a clear signal that there will be just one more 50bp interest rate cut in the current cycle (to 4.50%), which should temper expectations in... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to remain on hold next year The Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today and reiterated its readiness to ease policy if required. However, the background material to its “re-examination of economic and price developments“... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack IMF too optimistic on Australia and New Zealand In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicted Australia’s economy to expand by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020. While the 2019 forecast is consistent with our own expectations, their... 31st October 2019 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts rates, but draws line under further loosening The Fed cut interest rates for a third time as expected today, to between 1.5% and 1.75%, but changes in the statement suggest it is trying to dissuade the markets from pricing in any further... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Bank becoming more dovish While the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged today, it cut its growth forecasts and delivered a more dovish policy statement. This supports our view that the Bank will cut its policy rate before... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka goes to the polls Campaigning ahead of Sri Lanka’s presidential election, to be held on 16th November, is well underway. President Maithripala Sirisena has already confirmed he will not stand again and will step down... 30th October 2019 · 15 mins read
China Chart Pack Corporate earnings falling short of expectations The corporate earnings season currently underway in China has been disappointing. Admittedly, the Q3 results published so far point to a slight improvement in year-on-year growth in earnings per share... 30th October 2019 · 11 mins read
RBA Watch Quantitative easing more likely than not Falling unemployment and steady inflation will allow the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% at the meeting on Tuesday, 5th November. However, we expect the... 30th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How will the ECB change under Christine Lagarde? As part of its forthcoming review under Christine Lagarde, the ECB is likely to change its inflation target and make its voting system more transparent. Further ahead, it will have bigger issues to... 29th October 2019 · 26 mins read
