Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Stable financial system allows RBNZ to cut rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave mortgage lending restrictions unchanged and tighten capital requirements means that lending and house prices are unlikely to surge in 2020. As such... 5th December 2019 · 4 mins read
US Fed Watch Rates on hold for the next few years The Fed’s less dovish language, against a backdrop of fading downside risks, is why we think the Fed is now done cutting interest rates. We anticipate rates will remain at their current level of 1.50%... 4th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkish inflation in November is likely to mark the start of a steady upward trend over the next couple of years. This won’t prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further at... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to ease policy further The RBA turned more optimistic when it kept rates unchanged today but we think that further stimulus will be required before long. We reiterate our long-held view that the Bank will cut rates to 0.25%... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ target shorter bond yields? The IMF has suggested that the Bank of Japan could target shorter bond yields in order to steepen the yield curve and support the profitability of financial institutions. But the benefits to insurance... 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat The decision by Sri Lanka’s new president to cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% will provide a significant boost to the economy, but will put increased strain on the country’s fragile public finances... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian rates on hold, Kenya cuts, SAA losing altitude Monetary policymakers in Nigeria and Ghana kept their key rates on hold this week, while their Kenyan peers loosened policy. We expect that the next move in all three countries will be a cut... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) left rates on hold today but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to stay subdued and inflation likely to remain weak, we have pencilled in one more 25bp rate... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
