Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on prolonged hold Weak activity data suggest that GDP may have contracted by 1.0% q/q in the fourth quarter and we still expect the economy to shrink next year rather than expand as most anticipate. However, with the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update More policy easing still likely under Lagarde While Ms Lagarde’s assessment of the outlook in today’s press conference was slightly less gloomy than Mr Draghi’s in October, this does not change our view that the ECB will loosen policy again... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank not taking its foot off the pedal The 200bp interest rate cut (to 12.0%) by the Turkish central bank as well as other recent tweaks to boost lending suggest that policymakers will try to meet President Erdogan’s demand to bring rates... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB halfway through a sub-zero decade Today’s decision by the Swiss National Bank to leave its policy stance unchanged came as a surprise to nobody. Five years on since the Bank first cut interest rates into negative territory, there is... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP on hold, easing to resume in 2020 The Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, but with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain below the mid-point of the BSP’s target, we expect more easing next... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed begins prolonged hold The Fed called time on its easing cycle today by leaving the fed funds target range unchanged at 1.50%-1.75% and striking a more upbeat tone in the policy statement. With economic growth stabilising... 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM currencies likely to weaken; Chilean peso an exception Optimism about an imminent resolution to the trade war between the US and China and subsiding protests in Latin America have supported EM currencies over the past month. But, barring a few exceptions... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland in “wait-and-see” mode After cutting rates by 150bps since April, the Central Bank of Iceland kept its deposit rate at its current record low of 3.00% today. We suspect that in the absence of a sharp and sustained fall in... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus The lessons from negative interest rates so far There is little evidence that negative interest rates have succeeded in boosting economic growth or inflation expectations. But equally, they do not seem to have done much harm either – many of the... 9th December 2019 · 14 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov.) The continued weakness of core inflation that we expect in November’s consumer price data will probably give the MPC scope to ease policy again in the near term. But the big picture is that the... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over to you, finance ministry While unexpectedly keeping rates on hold yesterday, the RBI put the onus on the finance ministry to do more of the heavy lifting to boost demand. So if we are right in thinking that the finance... 6th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI leaves rates unchanged, but easing cycle isn’t over The Reserve Bank unexpectedly left interest rates unchanged for the first time this year, following five successive rate cuts. Nevertheless, the MPC has left the door open for further easing in the... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
