Japan Economics Weekly Diminishing capacity shortages won’t prompt rate cuts Capacity shortages remained pronounced on the eve on the sales tax hike. And even though we expect the output gap to decline a bit over the coming months, that probably won’t trigger additional easing... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe: central banks to shrug off high inflation The recent rise in inflation to multi-year highs across most of Central Europe has only a little further to run, but it will stay above central banks’ targets across the region this year. Policymakers... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The road to recovery After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a... 9th January 2020 · 19 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Dec.) Another surge in headline CPI inflation in December, perhaps to a five-year high, means that the RBI’s easing cycle is probably over. And a rise in core inflation over the coming quarters should... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to fall short of expectations The sales tax hike has not been as damaging as many had feared. But we remain more pessimistic about the outlook for global growth and domestic investment than most. That explains why we expect GDP to... 8th January 2020 · 22 mins read
China Economics Weekly Hukou reforms & property, RRR cut, loan repricing The interest rates on virtually all outstanding loans issued by China’s banks will be renegotiated over the next few months as the PBOC implements the most consequential phase of its efforts to... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in December means that this month’s interest rate decision will be a close call. For now, we think that the central bank will cave into pressure... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Dec.) The manufacturing PMIs ended 2019 higher than where they started the year but we doubt this means the worst is over for China’s economy. While it does appear that export growth is bottoming out... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Bailey faces some challenges as new BoE Governor The confirmation that Andrew Bailey will take over from Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England on 16th March 2020 doesn’t change the outlook for monetary policy. But Bailey will face many... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK to cut again, Sri Lanka on slow road to recovery Minutes from the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) November rate meeting reveal that while only one of the seven members of its Monetary Policy Board voted for a cut, other members also struck a dovish tone. We... 20th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ back in its comfort zone as 2020 approaches The most reliable measure of consumption showed a rather smaller drop in spending in October. The upshot is that the contraction in Q4 GDP probably won’t be as severe as we had anticipated. Meanwhile... 20th December 2019 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update Loan Prime Rates on hold but cuts still on the horizon The Loan Prime Rate (LPR), the reference point against which banks now price loans, held steady in December. The one-year LPR was unchanged at 4.15% (both the Bloomberg consensus and our forecast were... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Vegetable prices still rising, populism risk grows RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das reiterated this week that, despite the RBI keeping rates on hold this month, the easing cycle isn’t necessarily over. But the continued rise in vegetable prices over the... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
