Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more easing still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) left policy unchanged today, but with the economy struggling for momentum and price pressures set to remain weak, we expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle later this year. 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Christine Lagarde’s honeymoon continues At Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB President next week, the Governing Council is sure to leave the main policy settings unchanged. The increase in inflation at the end of last year means... 16th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB launches brief easing cycle South African policymakers surprised the markets by cutting the repo rate, but with inflation set to rise there is limited room for further easing. We expect just one further 25bp cut. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has not shut the door on further easing The account of December’s ECB meeting confirmed that the Governing Council is content to leave monetary policy unchanged for some time. But it left the option of further easing on the table – an... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT bows to Erdogan but will have to backpedal The Turkish central bank (CBRT) cut interest rates by another 75bp today as policymakers bowed to pressure from President Erdogan for looser policy. More rate cuts are likely in the next few months... 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack To cut, or not to cut, that is the question The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on whether to cut rates in January rests on a knife edge and could go either way. The MPC must weigh up the weakness of the economy and low inflation in Q4... 16th January 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack SNB to be forced to cut interest rates again The decision by the SNB to scrap its currency ceiling five years ago coincided with it slashing interest rates to a record low to reduce the attractiveness of holding Swiss francs. Alas, this... 16th January 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update Our thoughts on the chances of a January rate cut We have argued for some time that a near-term interest rate cut is a strong possibility. The market has now come around to this view. While the decision is a toss-up, at least until we see the next... 15th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Temporary nature of slowdown to keep Bank on hold Next week the Bank of Canada is likely to once again trim its forecast for GDP growth. But as temporary factors are partly to blame and there have been several positive external developments in recent... 15th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it accelerated to a seven-month high in December nevertheless supports our view that the rate-cutting... 14th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Chances of policy easing diminishing The Bank of Japan will almost certainly leave policy settings unchanged when its forthcoming meeting concludes on 21st January as recent data have mostly been reassuring. And while we expect the... 14th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Frankenshock continues to cast a shadow on the SNB Five years after the so-called Frankenshock, the SNB is near the end of the road for conventional monetary easing. Accordingly, the Bank may be forced to make another radical policy choice if there is... 13th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook EM catch-up to slow as globalisation stalls 10th January 2020 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
