US Fed Watch Fed likely to sit on its hands in 2020 Signs of improvement in the activity data and the trade ceasefire with China should reassure Fed officials that they have now done enough to support the economy. We expect the fed funds target range... 22nd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia likely to cut again this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, and with growth set to slow further over the next couple of quarters, we think the central bank will ease policy again later... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Will the next move in interest rates be up or down? We suspect that interest rates will neither go up nor down this year! But the markets may be caught out further ahead if, as we expect, a fiscal stimulus and easing in Brexit uncertainty results in... 21st January 2020 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update ECB policy likely to push bond yields and euro down While we have altered our forecasts for ECB policy this year, we are still more dovish than investors about the outlook for interest rates in the euro-zone. As such, we continue to think that... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2019) The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that while consumer spending growth will maintain a steady pace, investment growth will weaken. It also implies that future TLTRO-III operations will be a... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Capacity shortages to ease, but not enough for rate cut The Bank of Japan shocked no one in leaving its major policy settings unchanged today. And with obstacles to further easing high, the slight fall in capacity shortages we are expecting this year won’t... 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Tentative signs of recovery 2019 was truly an annus horribilis for India’s economy but there are green shoots of a recovery in the data from the very end of the year. Industrial production growth jumped in November. Meanwhile... 20th January 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Data distortions make the MPC’s job more difficult A flurry of weak data this week has sent money markets into a tailspin. But we suspect that the MPC will just about look past the Brexit and election related distortions and will probably hold off... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB stuck between a rock and a hard place The re-inclusion of Switzerland on the US Treasury’s Monitoring List of potential currency manipulators this week was interpreted by investors as a shot across the bow of the SNB. However, we doubt... 17th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s political storm, Central European rates Russia’s political drama has triggered a flurry of speculation about how President Putin plans to wield power beyond the end of his term in 2024. We see nothing in this to change our downbeat long... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE pauses for breath, but more rate cuts still in store In a surprise move, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold yesterday even though policymakers don’t seem to be worried by the recent rise in inflation. We think that the easing... 17th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FSA’s sweeping reforms, BoJ cuts regional assessment Proposals to allow regional banks to diversify into non-banking business could help to reduce their overreliance on dwindling interest income. But in a sector famed for its conservatism, business... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read